On Tuesday, CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered a compelling “reality check” to viewers about President Donald Trump’s favorability, urging a shift in how we interpret the numbers. While headlines swirl around protests over the Trump administration’s DOGE cuts and tough immigration policies, Enten pointed out a surprising trend: Americans might actually be warming up to the president.
Yes, Trump’s net favorability rating still lingers in negative territory, but Enten encouraged a deeper dive into the data—one that considers the president’s unique historical context. “I think sometimes it’s important to do a little bit of a reality check and take a little different spin at the numbers,” he said.
“Because all we talk about is how unpopular Donald Trump is, but in reality, he‘s basically more popular than he was at any point in term number one and more popular than he was when he won election back in November of 2024.”
Enten’s argument hinges on a simple but powerful idea: Trump should be measured against his own past performance, not just against other presidents. “I think it‘s very important to compare him to himself, to understand he‘s actually more popular now than he was when he won, or certainly where he was at this point back in his first term,” he explained.
The numbers back him up. According to Enten’s aggregates, Trump’s current net favorability sits at -4—a clear improvement from -7 when he clinched victory in November 2024 and a significant leap from -10 in March 2017, early in his first term.
“So when you compare Trump against himself, he‘s actually closer to the apex than he is to the bottom of the trough,” Enten noted. “And of course, that‘s so important because Donald Trump, historically speaking, has had his numbers underestimated.” This historical tendency to misjudge Trump’s support, he suggested, makes the current uptick even more noteworthy.
But Enten didn’t stop there. He unveiled another angle that sheds light on Trump’s standing with the public: the “right track” metric. “Let‘s take a look at the percentage of the country who say that we‘re on the right track. It‘s actually a very high percentage when you compare it to some historical numbers,” he said.
Citing Marist polls, 45% of Americans currently feel optimistic about the nation’s direction—the second-highest figure since 2009. Meanwhile, NBC News pegs it at 44%, a peak not seen since 2004.
“The bottom line is the percentage of Americans who say we‘re on the right track is through the roof,” Enten emphasized. He also pointed to the congressional ballot margin between Democrats and Republicans, which in March 2025 mirrors patterns from years when Republicans swept Congress. This, he argued, paints a picture far rosier for Trump and his party than the usual narrative suggests.
Wrapping up, Enten distilled his analysis into a clear takeaway: “The bottom line is, yes, Donald Trump‘s approval rating is lower than compared to a lot of his predecessors, but it‘s higher when compared to himself. A lot of folks say the country is on the right track, and the generic congressional ballot looks a heck of a lot more like when Republicans win than when Democrats win.”
In a media landscape fixated on Trump’s controversies, Enten’s fresh spin invites us to reconsider the data—and maybe even the story we’ve been telling ourselves about the president’s place in America today.
Yet, despite these signs of growing support, Democrats seem to remain caught off guard by Trump’s resilience. Time and again, they’ve dismissed his appeal as a fluke, focusing instead on his polarizing style and policy missteps. This miscalculation isn’t new—it echoes their shock in 2016 and again in 2024, when Trump defied polls to secure victories. Enten’s data suggests that Democrats are still clinging to an outdated playbook, one that assumes Trump’s negative favorability will inevitably sink him. But as the numbers climb and the “right track” sentiment surges, it’s clear that this strategy might be missing the mark.
Part of the Democrats’ blind spot lies in their tendency to view Trump through a traditional lens, comparing him to past presidents rather than grappling with his unique hold on a loyal base. They’ve leaned heavily on narratives of discontent—highlighting protests and policy backlash—while overlooking the quiet approval brewing among voters who feel the country is finally heading in a direction they like. The 45% “right track” figure from Marist, for instance, isn’t just a statistic; it’s a signal that Trump’s messaging is resonating with a sizable chunk of the electorate, even if it doesn’t fit the opposition’s expectations.
This persistent underestimation could prove costly. With the congressional ballot tilting toward Republican-friendly territory, Democrats risk repeating history if they fail to adapt. Enten’s analysis isn’t just a wake-up call for viewers—it’s a flashing neon sign for a party that keeps betting against Trump’s staying power, only to watch him climb closer to the top of his game. As March 2025 unfolds, the question isn’t just how popular Trump is, but whether his opponents will finally stop misreading the room.
Stay tuned to the Fairview Gazette.
