A recent poll conducted by JL Partners, shared exclusively with the New York Post, paints a complex picture of how Americans view the economy in May 2025. While there’s a noticeable uptick in optimism, many still feel the economy is on a downward spiral, reflecting a nation grappling with hope and skepticism in equal measure.
The survey, conducted May 13-14 with 1,003 registered voters, shows 29% believe the economy is on an upward trajectory—a four-point increase from late April and a seven-point jump since January, before President Trump’s inauguration. Yet, a substantial 46% of voters feel conditions are deteriorating, and 16% say the economy is already in poor shape, with no change in sight. This mixed sentiment highlights a divide in how Americans perceive their financial future.
Partisan Divide Shapes Economic Views
Political affiliation heavily colors economic outlooks. Among Republicans, 56% express confidence in the economy’s direction, while only 15% feel otherwise. Democrats, however, are far less optimistic, with 65% believing things are not improving and just 15% seeing progress. Unaffiliated voters lean pessimistic, with 55% doubting improvement compared to 17% who are hopeful. Gender also plays a role: 51% of women anticipate economic decline, compared to 40% of men.
Regional Variations Offer Bright Spots
Geographic differences reveal pockets of positivity. Voters in the Southeast are narrowly optimistic, with 37% seeing improvement versus 35% expecting decline.
The Midwest also tilts slightly positive, with 40% hopeful compared to 38% pessimistic. Elsewhere, most regions remain net-negative, reflecting widespread caution about economic prospects.
Policy Moves and Market Reactions
Economic sentiment has been shaped by recent policy shifts. Discontent peaked after President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in early April, when 69% of voters viewed conditions as poor or worsening.
Trump’s global 10% tariffs and threats of higher “reciprocal” duties resulted in new trade agreements with the UK and China. However, a Manhattan Court of International Trade ruling on May 28 blocked these baseline tariffs, citing overreach under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This decision sparked a surge in stock futures early Thursday, signaling market relief.
Other tariffs on foreign cars, aluminum, and steel remain in place, though partially relaxed for Mexico and Canada under a prior trade deal from Trump’s first term. Meanwhile, Trump’s new 50% tariff threat against the European Union, originally set for June 1, has been delayed to July 9 as negotiations unfold.
Inflation Trends and Federal Reserve Stance
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation easing to 2.3% over the last 12 months ending in April. This is the lowest figure since February 2021. Yet, at the Federal Reserve’s early May meeting, nearly all 19 officials described inflation risks as “persistent,” opting to hold interest rates steady for now. This cautious approach reflects ongoing uncertainty in the economic landscape.
Trump’s Defense and Public Perception
Public support for Trump’s economic, immigration, and foreign policy priorities has waned, according to polls following his first 100 days. On May 28, Trump sharply rebuffed a CNBC reporter questioning whether recent stock market rallies stemmed from him “chickening out” on tariff threats.
“You mean because I reduced China from 145%, that I set down to 100, and then down to another number, [and] I said you have to open your whole country?” Trump responded. He highlighted negotiations with the EU, stating, “And because I gave the European Union a 50% … tariff and they called up and they said, ‘Please let’s meet right now.’ … you call that chickening out?” He added, “Six months ago, this country was stone-cold dead,” framing his actions as strategic negotiation.
The Fairview Gazette will keep you updated on any economic news coming out of the Trump administration.
