Back on June 21, President Donald Trump authorized Operation Midnight Hammer, a U.S. military strike targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, using 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs. A detailed analysis by nuclear weapons expert David Albright and his team at the Institute for Science and International Security revealed significant damage to Iran’s nuclear program.
“For the first time in over 15 years, no breakout estimate to weapon-grade uranium (WGU) is included in our reporting on the IAEA reports,” the report stated, adding, “Iran has no identifiable route to produce weapon-grade uranium in its centrifuge plants.”
The strikes, which involved seven B-2 stealth bombers and over 125 aircraft, aimed to dismantle Iran’s ability to produce weapons-grade uranium, marking a significant setback to its nuclear ambitions.
The report noted that the attacks destroyed or rendered inoperative nearly 22,000 gas centrifuges across the three sites, crippling Iran’s capacity to produce uranium hexafluoride and conduct centrifuge research.
“They destroyed Iran’s ability to make gas centrifuges, severely degraded its capabilities to research and develop them, and destroyed Iran’s ability to make uranium hexafluoride,” the analysis concluded, indicating a major disruption to Iran’s enrichment infrastructure.
Challenges in Assessing Long-Term Impact
Despite the extensive damage, Albright’s team cautioned that uncertainties remain about Iran’s remaining nuclear capabilities.
“Calculating a breakout time would require unsubstantiated speculation about the existence and operability of centrifuges that were not destroyed in the war, such as centrifuges already made but not yet deployed, as well as about the availability of enriched uranium stocks,” the report explained.
The lack of access to Iran’s nuclear sites, following President Masoud Pezeshkian’s decision to halt cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has limited the agency’s ability to monitor stockpiles.
“The IAEA has little to no information about Iran’s nuclear material stockpiles or nuclear sites,” the report noted, forcing researchers to rely on open-source data.
The analysis found no evidence that Iran moved enriched uranium stocks from the targeted sites before the strikes, suggesting that the attacks significantly impacted its nuclear material reserves.
However, the absence of IAEA oversight raises questions about potential undisclosed facilities or materials, complicating efforts to fully assess Iran’s nuclear potential.
Reactions and Ongoing Questions
Trump administration officials celebrated the findings as validation of the president’s claims about the operation’s success. “Your friendly reminder that Iran’s nuclear capabilities are OBLITERATED!”
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly declared, echoing Trump’s assertion that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.
However, some experts urged caution, noting that while the attacks caused “immense destruction to Iran’s ability to make the nuclear weapon itself,” a comprehensive damage assessment is still pending due to limited access to the sites.
Iran’s decision to suspend IAEA cooperation has heightened concerns about transparency, with the report noting that the lack of inspections creates ambiguity about the full extent of the damage.
The strikes, part of a 12-day conflict involving Israeli operations, have reshaped Iran’s nuclear landscape, but questions persist about whether the country could reconstitute its program using un-deployed centrifuges or covert facilities.
