Wednesday, September 3, 2025

JD Vance reveals who will win in a Russia-Ukraine peace deal

JD Vance Outlines Path to Ukraine Peace Negotiations

Vice President JD Vance provided a glimpse into the Trump administration’s strategy for President Donald Trump’s forthcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, aimed at halting the protracted war in Ukraine.

Speaking on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures with anchor Maria Bartiromo, Vance framed the potential resolution as pragmatic yet challenging.

“Look, it’s actually very simple,” Vance said. “If you take where the current line of contact between Russia and Ukraine is, we’re going to try to find some negotiated settlement that the Ukrainians and the Russians can live with, where they can live in relative peace, where the k*lling stops.”

He further noted, “It’s not going to make anybody super happy. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians, probably, at the end of the day, are going to be unhappy with it. But I don’t think you can actually sit down and have this negotiation absent the leadership of Donald J. Trump.”

Trump disclosed on Truth Social his plan to meet Putin in Alaska on Friday, and mentioned to journalists that a deal could involve “some swapping of territories” to conclude the conflict. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy quickly rejected any suggestion of yielding land.

Vance also downplayed the utility of a standalone meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy beforehand, stating it might not substantially aid the process.

“I think, fundamentally, the president of the United States has to be the one to kind of bring these two together,” Vance explained, adding that “fundamentally, this is something where the president needs to force President Putin and President Zelenskyy really to sit down to figure out their differences.”

Diplomatic Advances Amid Key Obstacles

Vance praised the roles of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in pushing forward the administration’s diplomatic initiatives. A significant barrier had been Putin’s reluctance to negotiate directly with Zelenskyy.

“And the president has now got that to change,” Vance said. “We’re at a point now where we’re now trying to figure out, frankly, scheduling and things like that around when these three leaders could sit down and discuss an end to this conflict.”

These steps signal a potential turning point in efforts to end the violence, though deep-seated issues persist, including differing views on territorial integrity and security assurances.

Historical Backdrop of the Conflict

The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fourth year as of mid-2025, stems from longstanding geopolitical frictions that intensified in 2014. That year, Russia annexed Crimea following a disputed referendum amid Ukraine’s political crisis, which saw the removal of pro-Russian leader Viktor Yanukovych. This action prompted international sanctions and condemnation.

Simultaneously, separatist movements in Donetsk and Luhansk, backed by allegations of Russian support, ignited a low-level conflict claiming over 14,000 lives by 2022, per UN figures.

The situation escalated dramatically on February 24, 2022, with Russia’s full invasion, justified by Moscow through claims of protecting ethnic Russians and combating alleged extremism—assertions rejected by Ukraine and Western nations as justifications for aggression. Ukrainian defenses, supported by domestic mobilization and extensive aid from the U.S., EU, and NATO allies totaling over $100 billion, thwarted early gains, including an assault on Kyiv. The war has since become a grinding stalemate, with heavy fighting in eastern and southern areas, devastating cities like Mariupol and Bakhmut.

The human cost is immense: hundreds of thousands of casualties, millions displaced, and widespread infrastructure damage. Globally, it has sparked food and energy shortages, with Ukraine’s grain exports disrupted and Russia’s gas supplies weaponized.

Russia has sought partnerships with Iran and North Korea for supplies, while prior peace attempts, such as the Minsk accords and Istanbul talks, faltered due to incompatible goals—Ukraine demanding complete withdrawal, Russia insisting on recognition of its territorial claims. As negotiations resume under U.S. auspices, the path forward remains fraught with risks of further escalation or prolonged impasse.

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