Former Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the clear front-runner in California’s 2026 gubernatorial primary, securing 31% of likely voters’ support, according to a recent Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics/The Hill survey released Thursday. Conducted from April 12-14 with 911 likely voters, the poll highlights Harris’s significant lead over other contenders.
Her closest competitors, former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), trailed with 8% and 4% support, respectively. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a late entrant, garnered just 2%. Notably, a substantial 39% of respondents remain undecided, signaling an open field as the race takes shape.
A Polarized Electorate on Harris’s Potential Run
Despite her polling dominance, Californians are deeply divided on whether Harris should pursue the governorship. The survey reveals an even split, with 50% of likely voters encouraging her to run and 50% opposing her candidacy.
This division follows Harris’s high-profile loss in the 2024 presidential election, which may influence voter sentiment. Harris, who previously served as California’s senator and attorney general, is reportedly keeping her political options open, with a decision on the governor’s race expected by summer’s end, according to Politico.
Within the Democratic base, Harris commands a formidable 49% support, far outpacing Porter’s 13%. However, the race’s dynamics could shift significantly if Harris opts out.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, observed, “How competitive the 2026 gubernatorial primary in California depends on whether or not Harris runs — other candidacies, like Katie Porter’s, are contingent on whether or not the former Vice President enters the race.”
Kimball further noted, “Without Harris in the race, Porter’s support among Democrats rises to 21%, which would make her an early frontrunner in a crowded field.” This underscores Harris’s outsized influence on the primary’s trajectory.
Uncertainty Looms in California’s Political Future
As Harris weighs her next move, voters also expressed opinions on the future of Gov. Gavin Newsom, who will be termed out in 2026. A majority, 59%, believe Newsom should not launch a presidential bid in 2028, while 41% support the idea.
This sentiment reflects a cautious view of Newsom’s national ambitions, even as he remains a prominent figure in California politics.
The poll highlights the interconnected nature of the state’s political landscape, with Harris’s decision likely to ripple across Democratic strategies for both state and national races.
The significant portion of undecided voters—39%—adds an element of unpredictability to the 2026 primary.
Harris’s potential candidacy, coupled with her strong Democratic backing, positions her as a formidable force, but the even split on her participation suggests she must navigate lingering skepticism.
Meanwhile, candidates like Porter and Becerra face an uphill battle unless the field shifts.
As California approaches a pivotal election to replace Newsom, the coming months will be critical in determining whether Harris can translate her early lead into a successful gubernatorial campaign.
