Russian troops are amassing approximately 16,000 personnel near eastern Ukraine’s Pokrovsk sector, potentially gearing up for a fresh assault within the next 10 days, according to a Ukrainian field commander who spoke exclusively to the New York Post.
The buildup reflects Moscow’s determination to seize the remaining portions of the Donbas region, where it currently holds about 30% of the territory after more than three years of conflict.
Maj. Oleh Shyriaiev, who leads Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Regiment, described the mounting pressure in the area. “In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russians are trying to break through our defense lines,” he said.
Shyriaiev, offering his assessment based on frontline observations, added, “As far as I can see — and this is my subjective opinion — the enemy will be gathering some more reserves there, and within the next maybe 10 days, they will begin a counter-offensive.”
The city of Pokrovsk, a vital hub for supply lines in Donetsk Oblast, has been a focal point for Russian advances over the past year. Located in the portion of the region still under Ukrainian control, it represents a key objective for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long aimed to dominate the entire oblast—a goal that has eluded his forces since hostilities erupted there in 2014 and escalated into full-scale war in 2022.
In August, Putin reiterated demands for Kyiv to cede all of Donetsk as a precondition for peace talks, a proposal dismissed by senior U.S. officials as unrealistic, given Russia’s incomplete control over the area, sources familiar with the discussions told The Post.
Mixed Assessments on Russian Momentum
Russia’s military efforts this year have centered on four primary fronts: Sumy in the north-central area, Pokrovsk in the east, and Novopavlivka and Zaporizhzhia in the southeast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky provided an update on Wednesday via a post on X, noting that two of these initiatives have stalled.
“The Sumy operation has already failed – Russia suffered heavy losses, especially in manpower, and has redeployed forces to other fronts. Ukrainian Armed Forces inflicted even greater losses on them there,” he wrote, without specifying the second faltering axis.
Zelensky suggested that Moscow’s setbacks have depleted its resources significantly.
“As a result, Russia is left with two operations. But it has lost so much manpower that it cannot deliver strong additional actions in the above mentioned directions,” he continued. Contrasting Shyriaiev’s forecast, Zelensky expressed doubt about Russia’s capacity for major pushes, stating, “as of now, they lack the strength for large-scale offensives.”
Recent Ukrainian successes offer some optimism on the ground. Shyriaiev highlighted his unit’s recapture of the village of Pankivka, northeast of Pokrovsk, which had briefly fallen to Russian control. “Our battalion has managed to liberate a village called Pankivka and by that, we have created a threat for the enemy that had previously created a narrow salient,” he explained. “So we have created a threat of cutting off that salient.”
The operation has improved Ukraine’s tactical position, Shyriaiev noted, though it may now draw intensified Russian attention.
“After the cut-off, ‘things are looking better’ for Ukraine,” he said, but cautioned that swift international assistance remains essential. “So the situation is, if we will get timely support from our partners, then we will be able to also react to any such advances in a timely fashion.”
Calls for Artillery Aid as U.S. Approves Packages
Shyriaiev’s plea for external help follows a Reuters report from Tuesday indicating that the Pentagon has greenlit at least two military aid shipments to Ukraine, funded by NATO allies, though details on contents and timelines remain undisclosed. The Pentagon did not respond to inquiries about the approvals.
Ukraine has bolstered its drone production for reconnaissance and strikes, achieving greater self-sufficiency in those areas. However, it continues to rely on Western suppliers for conventional arms like howitzers. While drones excel against isolated targets, Shyriaiev emphasized artillery’s role in countering larger formations. “Artillery is important because different types of artillery systems of different calibers allow us to work from at different distances,” he said. “Without artillery, modern war is impossible.”
As the conflict enters its fourth year, the Pokrovsk buildup emphasizes the persistent grind in Donetsk, where both sides face mounting attrition amid stalled negotiations.
